期刊
AEROSPACE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
卷 69, 期 -, 页码 526-537出版社
ELSEVIER FRANCE-EDITIONS SCIENTIFIQUES MEDICALES ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ast.2017.07.016
关键词
Distribution parameter uncertainty; Rare event simulation; Predictive failure probability; Launch vehicle stage fallback zone; Space debris collision
资金
- ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab
- SIGMA Clermont
This paper aims at comparing two different approaches to perform a reliability analysis in a context of uncertainties affecting probability distribution parameters. The first approach called nested reliability approach (NRA) is a classical double-loop-approach involving a sampling phase of the parameters and then a reliability analysis for each sampled parameter value. A second approach, called augmented reliability approach (ARA), requires to sample both distribution parameters and basic random variables conditional to them at the same phase and then integrate simultaneously over both domains. In this article, a numerical comparison is led. Possibilities offered by both approaches are investigated and the advantages of the ARA are illustrated through the application on two academic test-cases illustrating several numerical difficulties (low failure probability, nonlinearity of the limit-state function, correlation between input basic variables) and two real space system characterization (a launch vehicle stage fallback zone estimation and a collision probability between a space debris and a satellite estimation) for which only the ARA is tractable. (C) 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
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