Changes and drivers of afro-alpine forest ecosystem: future trajectories and management strategies in Bale eco-region, Ethiopia

Introduction: Ecosystem change and respective conservation needs were at top priority areas in the globe especially at biodiversity hotspot zones and places of endemism like Bale eco-region. In this aspect, this study had tried to assess historical landscape changes of afro-alpine forest ecosystem with its respective driving forces and effectiveness of different institutional arrangements to protect this ecosystem. Methods: The study utilized satellite imagery from Landsat series starting from 1986 to 2016, ground truth data from GPS-based field survey, focus group discussions, and reconnaissance field survey. Historical landscape maps were prepared with a mix of supervised and unsupervised image classification methods. Future landscape change simulation was undertaken by using cellular automata modeling on Dynamic Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) software. Beyond areal change and transition of landscape elements, level of ecosystem fragmentation was assessed with FRAGSTAT software. Results: Results have shown that there is encroachment of human-induced land use patterns especially agriculture and grazing while closed canopy forest and woodland ecosystems have decreased in their extent. Simulation outputs for the coming three decades have also shown similar patterns with historical trends. Beyond changes in areal extent, landscape matrix analysis results indicated that there is increasing class and landscape level fragmentation both in its historical and future probable likelihoods. Effectiveness of different management strategies at different institutional arrangement were differ in their effectiveness that federal and regional government were not able to curve landscape change. Conclusions: In conclusion, increasing population pressure and weak policy implementation and legal enforcement has caused threats for alpine forest ecosystem in Bale eco-region. Except participatory forest management, management strategies at different institutional arrangements were failed to conserve forest. These calls reinnovated participatory forest management strategies that base community participation while simultaneously keeps livelihoods demands of local community.