Monte-Carlo-based reliability and vulnerability assessment of a natural gas transmission system due to random network component failures

Energy supply disruptions highlight the need to study the design of energy infrastructure networks from the security of supply point of view. For this purpose, a Monte-Carlo simulation-based approach has been developed to analyse disruptions in the gas transmission network. The developed simulation model gives realistic results in several problems studied, vulnerability analysis being one of them. The vulnerability identification algorithm is used for finding a combination of component failures leading to the most significant security of supply disruptions. The paper presents a test study case of the European gas transmission network represented by a stochastic flow network in which elements can randomly fail with given failure probabilities. Failure modelling of key gas transmission network components (pipelines, LNG terminals and compressor stations) is presented and discussed. Although the network is quite resistant to any single component failure, the results indicate that a simultaneous failure of two or more gas network nodes can have fatal security of supply consequences.