Practical Performance of the 2015 American Thyroid Association Guidelines for Predicting Tumor Recurrence in Patients with Papillary Thyroid Cancer in South Korea

Background: The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) management guidelines for adult patients with differentiated thyroid cancer propose the use of the modified initial risk stratification and response to therapy re-stratification systems. This study was conducted to validate the practicality of the revised guidelines for predicting tumor recurrence in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer. Methods: Patients with papillary thyroid cancer (n = 2425) who underwent total thyroidectomy with central neck node dissection with or without modified radical neck node dissection at a single institution between October 1985 and July 2009 were retrospectively enrolled. The accuracy of three different risk-stratification strategies for predicting disease-free survival, set out in the 2009 and 2015 ATA management guidelines, was assessed: the initial risk stratification (ATA 2009-RSS), the modified initial risk stratification (ATA 2015-RSS), and the response to therapy re-stratification (ATA 2015-RTR). Results: After applying the ATA 2015-RSS, 258/1913 (13.5%) of patients originally designated as intermediate risk by the ATA 2009-RSS were designated as low risk. This was mainly due to the small number of metastatic lymph nodes. Recurrence was detected in 136 (5.6%) patients during follow-up. Of the 2425 cases examined, 375 were designated as low risk by the ATA 2009-RSS, with a recurrence rate of 1.1%. However, the ATA 2015-RSS designated 633 (26.1%) cases as low risk, with a recurrence rate of 0.9%. Implementing the ATA 2015-RTR predicted an excellent response in 1597 (65.9%) cases, with a recurrence rate of 1.1%. According to the proportion of variance explained (PVE), the Akaike information criterion, Harrell's c index, and integrated area under the curve, comparing the predictive accuracy of the ATA 2009-RSS, ATA 2015-RSS, and ATA 2015-RTR revealed that the ATA 2015-RTR was a superior predictor of recurrence. Conclusions: A proportion of patients designated as intermediate risk by the ATA 2009-RSS were designated as low risk by the ATA 2015-RSS. The ATA 2015-RTR may be the most accurate predictor of risk of recurrence.