期刊
STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
卷 32, 期 3, 页码 771-784出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-017-1433-9
关键词
Weather generator; Extreme events; Climate extremes index; Multivariate; Multi-site; EOF
Capturing the spatial and temporal correlation of multiple variables in a weather generator is challenging. A new massively multi-site, multivariate daily stochastic weather generator called IMAGE is presented here. It models temperature and precipitation variables as latent Gaussian variables with temporal behaviour governed by an auto-regressive model whose residuals and parameters are correlated through resampling of principle component time series of empirical orthogonal function modes. A case study using European climate data demonstrates the model's ability to reproduce extreme events of temperature and precipitation. The ability to capture the spatial and temporal extent of extremes using a modified Climate Extremes Index is demonstrated. Importantly, the model generates events covering not observed temporal and spatial scales giving new insights for risk management purposes.
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