期刊
ADVANCING CULTURE OF LIVING WITH LANDSLIDES, VOL 2: ADVANCES IN LANDSLIDE SCIENCE
卷 -, 期 -, 页码 943-951出版社
SPRINGER INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHING AG
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-53498-5_107
关键词
Landslide susceptibility; National scale; Logistic regression; Validation; Austria
资金
- CNPq, the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development-Brazil [234815/2014-0]
Numerous publications that addressing landslide susceptibility were published over the past decades, also due to an increasing demand of spatial information regarding potentially endangered areas. However, studies that provide an overview on landslide susceptibility at national scale are still scarce. This research presents a first attempt to generate a national scale landslide susceptibility map for Austria based on statistical techniques. Binary logistic regression has been applied to delineate susceptible areas using three different predictor sets. The initial predictor set relates to topographic variables only (model A), and was gradually expanded with the factors geology (model B) and land cover (model C). The Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) was used to validate the predictions by means of a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained acceptable prediction performances (mean AUROC of model A: 0.76, B: 0.81 and C: 0.82) suggest a relatively high predictive performance of all models. However, during this study, several limitations of the conducted analysis (e.g. limited landslide data, bias propagation, overoptimistic performance estimates) became evident. The main drawbacks and further steps towards a more reliable representation of landslide susceptibility at national scale are discussed.
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