Can China Comply with Its 12th Five-Year Plan on Industrial Emissions Control: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

Chinas rapid economic growth has caused serious environmental problems, resulting in the implementation of two major measures-end-of-pipe facilities and the phasing out of backward capacity-to reduce Chinas industrial emissions as part of its 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010). It is important to determine whether China can meet the targets set forth in its 12th FYP (2011-2015) for industrial pollution reduction using these same solutions. In this paper, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was used to identify the contributions of the adopted measures-as well as other underlying factors-and to evaluate the feasibility of the reduction target in Chinas 12th FYP. Results show that the decrease in major industrial pollutant emissions achieved during the 11th FYP resulted from improved technological efficiency, including end-of-pipe abatement efficiency and pollutant generation intensity. The same measures adopted during Chinas 12th FYP can address the problem of industrial wastewater emissions resulting from economic growth when the economic structure is kept constant. But it may not fulfill its commitment of reducing industrial atmospheric pollutants emissions unless the economic structure and growth patterns are drastically reformed.