The enduring link between forest cover and rainfall: a historical perspective on science and policy discussions

Background: This article traces the history of scientific ideas connecting forest cover with rainfall to inform ongoing debates about whether forests are net users or producers of water in the hydrological cycle. Scholars of the supply-side school argue that forests are net producers and magnifiers that increase rainfall at regional scales. Supply-side scholars seek to challenge the dominance of demand-side thinking. The demand-side school emphasizes that trees are net users of water within a catchment that decrease overall water available for other users. This scientific debate has significant implications for the development of policies to manage forests and water. Results: Scientists have debated the question of whether forests improve or worsen water balance for over two hundred years. Connections between forests and rainfall gained prominence in scientific circles during the second half of the nineteenth century and again during the past three decades. The popularity of forest-rainfall connections has paralleled societal and scientific interest in anthropogenic climate change and deforestation. Theories connecting forests with rainfall peaked in popularity in the 1850s to 1880s, a period when scientists expressed alarm that deforestation caused regional declines in precipitation. Forests were understood to create rain within a locality and region. Scientific consensus shifted by the early twentieth century to the view that forests did not play a significant role in determining rainfall. The forest-rainfall connection reemerged in the 1980s alongside advances in climate modelling and growing fears of anthropogenic global warming and tropical deforestation. Using new data and theories, supply-side advocates have once again placed a strong forest-rainfall connection into scientific prominence. Conclusion: Supply-side management policies have a checkered history that should elicit caution, while demand-side policies, which are based on almost a century of hydrological research, should not be overturned quickly in regions that face potential water scarcity before more research is conducted.