期刊
RISK ANALYSIS
卷 37, 期 10, 页码 1936-1957出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12757
关键词
CREAM; evidential reasoning; human reliability analysis; maritime accident process; safety engineering
类别
资金
- China Scholarship Council (CSC)
- Marie Curie Actions (FP7-PEOPLE-IRSES)
- Key Project in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program [2015BAG20B05]
- special funds of Hubei Technical Innovation Project [2016AAA055]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [WUT: 2017IVA103]
- National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety [16KA03]
This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.
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