期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 10, 期 5, 页码 -出版社
IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002
关键词
event attribution; Central England temperature; climate variability; climate change; CMIP5
资金
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science [CE 110001028]
- NCI National Facility in Australia
- NWO project 'Trend or Coincidence'
- EUCLEIA project - European Union [607085]
In 2014, Central England experienced its warmest year in a record extending back to 1659. Using both state-of-the-art climate models and empirical techniques, our analysis shows a substantial and significant increase in the likelihood of record-breaking warm years, such as 2014, due to human influences on climate. With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central England by at least 13-fold. This study points to a large influence of human activities on extreme warm years despite the small region of study and the variable climate of Central England. Our analysis shows that climate change is clearly visible on the local-scale in this case.
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