期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 72, 期 -, 页码 287-303出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003
关键词
Uncertainty; Scaling; Integrated assessment; Risk assessment; Adaptation; Crop models
类别
资金
- FACCE-JPI knowledge hub
- project MACSUR
- National Agency for Agricultural Research [QJ1310123]
- InterDrought project [OP VK CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248]
- German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) [01LG1202A]
- BBSRC [BB/N004825/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [BB/N004825/1] Funding Source: researchfish
The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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