期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
卷 284, 期 1860, 页码 -出版社
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0901
关键词
climate; infection; statistical model; mathematical model; mechanism; climate change
资金
- James S. McDonnell Foundation
- Wellcome Trust Sustaining Health Grant [106866/Z/15/Z]
- Yale Climate Change and Health Initiative through a grant from the Overlook International Foundation
- Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study programme [1U54GM088558]
- NIH/NIAID [U19AI089674, R56AI110449, R01AI112970]
- NIH/NIA [P30AG021342]
- NIH/CTSA [UL1 TR000142]
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1106427, 1032350, OPP1114733]
- Career Award at the Scientific Interface from the Burroughs Wellcome Fund
Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.
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