Fragile coexistence of a global chytrid pathogen with amphibian populations is mediated by environment and demography

Unravelling the multiple interacting drivers of host-pathogen coexistence is crucial in understanding how an apparently stable state of endemism may shift towards an epidemic and lead to biodiversity loss. Here, we investigate the apparent coexistence of the global amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) with Bombina variegata populations in The Netherlands over a 7-year period. We used a multi-season mark-recapture dataset and assessed potential drivers of coexistence (individual condition, environmental mediation and demographic compensation) at the individual and population levels. We show that even in a situation with a clear cost incurred by endemic Bd, population sizes remain largely stable. Current environmental conditions and an over-dispersed pathogen load probably stabilize disease dynamics, but as higher temperatures increase infection probability, changing environmental conditions, for example a climate-change-driven rise in temperature, could unbalance the current fragile host-pathogen equilibrium. Understanding the proximate mechanisms of such environmental mediation and of site-specific differences in infection dynamics can provide vital information for mitigation actions.