期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 114, 期 19, 页码 4899-4904出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1617765114
关键词
aerosols; clouds; radiative forcing
资金
- European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union [FP7-306284, FP7-280025, FP7-603445]
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I020148/1]
- Austrian Science Fund [J 3402-N29]
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-12-3]
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI [JP15H01728, JP15K12190]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41575073, 41621005]
- Swiss National Supercomputing Center [s431]
- supercomputer system of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
- Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-AC06-76RLO 1830]
- US DOE Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models program
- US DOE Earth System Modeling program
- NERC [NE/I020148/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Austrian Science Fund (FWF) [J 3402] Funding Source: researchfish
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I020148/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [15H01728] Funding Source: KAKEN
Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the Nd to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the Nd to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol-climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between Nd and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol-cloud interactions in satellite data.
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