期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 114, 期 39, 页码 10384-10389出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1616784114
关键词
airborne particulate matter; China; life expectancy; Huai River; regression discontinuity
资金
- China National Science and Technology Pillar Program from the Ministry of Science and Technology [2013BAI04B02]
- School-Based Initiatives Research Grant from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
This paper finds that a 10-mu g/m(3) increase in airborne particulate matter [ particulate matter smaller than 10 mu m (PM10)] reduces life expectancy by 0.64 years (95% confidence interval = 0.21-1.07). This estimate is derived from quasiexperimental variation in PM10 generated by China's Huai River Policy, which provides free or heavily subsidized coal for indoor heating during the winter to cities north of the Huai River but not to those to the south. The findings are derived from a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, and they are robust to using parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, different kernel types and bandwidth sizes, and adjustment for a rich set of demographic and behavioral covariates. Furthermore, the shorter lifespans are almost entirely caused by elevated rates of cardiorespiratory mortality, suggesting that PM10 is the causal factor. The estimates imply that bringing all of China into compliance with its Class I standards for PM10 would save 3.7 billion life-years.
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