期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 114, 期 33, 页码 8746-8751出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1701354114
关键词
climate; suicide; agriculture; weather impacts; India
资金
- US Environmental Protection Agency Science To Achieve Results (EPA STAR) Fellowship [FP91780401]
More than three quarters of the world's suicides occur in developing countries, yet little is known about the drivers of suicidal behavior in poor populations. I study India, where one fifth of global suicides occur and suicide rates have doubled since 1980. Using nationally comprehensive panel data over 47 y, I demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, particularly temperature, significantly influence suicide rates. For temperatures above 20 degrees C, a 1 degrees C increase in a single day's temperature causes similar to 70 suicides, on average. This effect occurs only during India's agricultural growing season, when heat also lowers crop yields. I find no evidence that acclimatization, rising incomes, or other unobserved drivers of adaptation are occurring. I estimate that warming over the last 30 y is responsible for 59,300 suicides in India, accounting for 6.8% of the total upward trend. These results deliver large-scale quantitative evidence linking climate and agricultural income to selfharm in a developing country.
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