期刊
CHINESE JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT
卷 16, 期 1, 页码 49-58出版社
KEAI PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1080/10042857.2018.1433810
关键词
Carbon emissions peak; forcing mechanism; climate change; trend prediction
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71673217, 71573217]
- Shaanxi Soft Science Research Project [2015KRM143]
In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target (CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from research on carbon emission history to carbon emission trend prediction, from research on paths of realizing peak to peak restraint research, provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore, this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.
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