Analyzing energy savings potential of the Chinese building materials industry under different economic growth scenarios

As a vital industry providing raw materials to construction, building materials industry plays an essential role in China's energy consumption growth during urbanization. The objective of this study is to investigate the transition of future energy demand and energy savings potential of the Chinese building materials industry. The co-integration method is applied to identify the influencing factors of the sectoral energy use. Considering that economic growth is the driving force for the sectoral energy demand, this paper develops multiple scenarios to comprehensively analyze the transition of sectoral energy use and map various possibilities. Results indicate that although sectoral energy consumption peaks varied among different scenarios, the predicted sectoral energy use, which would account for a smaller share in national energy usage in the future, shows a similar downward trend after the first rise. Results also demonstrate that the sectoral energy savings potential is considerable. Policy implications are summarized as follows: (1) the relatively rapid economic growth stage provides an opportunity for the sector to conserve energy and reduce emissions; (2) technological progress ensures continuous improvement in sectoral energy efficiency; (3) the sector should speed up industrial restructuring and upgrading to deal with higher energy costs promoted by energy pricing reform. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.