Adapting the Dyna-CLUE model for simulating land use and land cover change in the Western Cape Province

Models which integrate and evaluate diverse factors of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change can be used to guide planners in making more informed decisions and achieving a balance between urban growth and preservation of the natural environment. The implementation of these models at a provincial scale is however very limited in South Africa. LULC change models are valuable if their structures are based on a deep knowledge of the system under investigation and if they produce credible results. This study therefore investigates the suitability of LULC change models in simulating LULC changes at a provincial scale in a South African context. The Dyna-CLUE model was implemented using the following as inputs: spatial policies and restrictions; land-use type conversions; land use requirements (demands) and location characteristics. The model produced probability maps and simulation maps for the years between 1990 and 2014. Validation of the simulated maps was conducted using both visual and statistical analysis and the results indicated that the simulated maps were in good agreement with the validation map. This study contributes to the implementation of LULC change models at a provincial scale in a South African context. Knowledge derived from this study can be used by planners as a guide to effectively gauge the impacts that planning policies and other driving factors might have on future LULC patterns in the Western Cape Province.