期刊
OSTEOARTHRITIS AND CARTILAGE
卷 25, 期 11, 页码 1797-1803出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.joca.2017.07.022
关键词
Total knee arthroplasty; Projections; Epidemiology; Incidence rates
资金
- Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centre of Research Excellence in Post-Marketing Surveillance of Medicines and Medical Devices grant [GNT1040938]
Objective: The purpose of our study was to estimate the future incidence rate (IR) and volume of primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the United States from 2015 to 2050 using a conservative projection model that assumes a maximum IR of procedures. Furthermore, our study compared these projections to a model assuming exponential growth, as done in previous studies, for illustrative purposes. Methods: A population based epidemiological study was conducted using data from US National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and Census Bureau. Primary TKA procedures performed between 1993 and 2012 were identified. The IR, 95% confidence intervals (CI), or prediction intervals (PI) of TKA per 100,000 US citizens over the age of 40 years were calculated. The estimated IR was used as the outcome of a regression modelling with a logistic regression (i.e., conservative model) and Poisson regression equation (i.e., exponential growth model). Results: Logistic regression modelling suggests the IR of TKA is expected to increase 69% by 2050 compared to 2012, from 429 (95% CI 374-453) procedures/100,000 in 2012 to 725 (95% PI 121e1041) in 2050. This translates into a 143% projected increase in TKA volume. Using the Poisson model, the IR in 2050 was projected to increase 565%, to 2854 (95% CI 2278-4004) procedures/100,000 IR, which is an 855% projected increase in volume compared to 2012. Conclusions: Even after using a conservative projection approach, the number of TKAs in the US, which already has the highest IR of knee arthroplasty in the world, is expected to increase 143% by 2050. (C) 2017 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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