Mongolian herders' vulnerability to dzud: a study of record livestock mortality levels during the severe 2009/2010 winter

The livelihoods of people inhabiting inland Eurasia have long been jeopardized by repeated natural hazards associated with a harsh environment and a cold, arid climate. Dzud is a Mongolian word indicating harsh winter conditions. In the present study, we considered dzud damage (e.g., livestock loss) to result from a combination of climate hazard (e.g., cold surges) and herders' socioeconomic vulnerability. For this study, we integrated crucial socioeconomic factors accounting for major spatiotemporal variations in Mongolia by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to a comprehensive province-level, multiyear dataset. We subsequently characterized the regionality of herders' vulnerability to the dzud event that occurred during the 2009/2010 winter by conducting a cluster analysis of the provincial principal component (PC) scores for the pre-dzud year (2009). Our results revealed a distinct geographical pattern of vulnerability. Herding households in the northern and northeastern (relatively wet and plain) areas were found to be well prepared for harsh winters, with shelters against wind and availability of forage, including hay, as well as easy access to major urban markets. By contrast, herding households in the southern and southwestern (arid and mountainous) areas were poorly prepared, with inadequate circumstances that facilitate pursuing of otor (movement of nomadic herders in search of better pastures) and lack of access to markets and dzud relief support because of their remote locations. The time coefficients of PC 2, related to winter preparedness, indicated that vulnerability increased between 2003 and 2009 (the pre-dzud year). This was partly responsible for the record-level mortality observed in 2010 across the southern and southwestern rural region, in conjunction with harsh winter weathers.