期刊
NATURAL HAZARDS
卷 90, 期 2, 页码 921-941出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3081-2
关键词
Rainfall threshold; Rainfall-induced landslide; Intensity-duration; Early warning; Antecedent rainfall; Philippines
资金
- United Nations World Food Programme
- Department of Physical Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines Baguio
- Cordillera Studies Center of the University of the Philippines Baguio
Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) have been a source of social and economic disruption in the mountainous Baguio area in northern Philippines. Prolonged heavy rainfall usually happens during tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon activity. A pragmatic approach to RIL mitigation is to develop rainfall-based early warning. We implemented a modified regression method to derive the empirical minimum intensity (I)-duration (D) threshold I = 6.46 D (-0.28) and a normalized ID threshold NI = 0.002 D (-0.28) for rainfall duration ranging between 24 and 264 h. Using a separate data set to evaluate the applicability of the threshold, 93% of the landslide-triggering rainfall events fell above the derived threshold. RILs also occurred when 24-h rainfall was 0.02-28% of the mean annual precipitation or after accumulating at least 500 mm of rainfall from the onset of the rainy season. The thresholds may be further refined as more landslide data become available in the future.
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