Anti-JCV serology during natalizumab treatment: Review and meta-analysis of 17 independent patient cohorts analyzing anti-John Cunningham polyoma virus sero-conversion rates under natalizumab treatment and differences between technical and biological sero-converters

Background: Anti-John Cunningham virus (JCV) serology has been studied with varying results concerning longitudinal changes. Objectives and methods: Results from 17 published natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis (MS) patient cohorts were analyzed with common parameters and subsequently verified in two large independent cohorts with 722 and 499 patients from Germany and the United States. Results: Published studies and the verification showed (1) a mean of 10.80% sero-negative patients presented with sero-status change to positivity per year; (2) patients, who sero-convert to index values <0.9, convert from near the threshold and have a high probability of reverting with time; (3) patients, who convert to index values >0.9, start with low index values; (4) while JCV sero-positive patients with low index values sometimes revert to sero-negativity, patients with high index values almost never revert; and (5) the conversion rate of natalizumab-treated patients is three to four times higher than the biological conversion by age. Conclusion: JCV sero-conversion was comparable using standardized parameters and indicates influence of natalizumab on JCV immune control. Converters to low index values are probably consistently infected with JCV with varying low levels of activity, in line with their low risk to develop progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Patients with high index values rarely revert back to sero-negativity.