Risk factors and a simple model for predicting bile leakage after radical hepatectomy in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis

Postoperative bile leakage (BL) is a major complication of hepatic alveolar echinococcosis (HAE). The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors for BL and to establish a simple scoring system for predicting BL. A total of 152 patients with HAE were included in the study between May 2004 and December 2016. The patient's baseline data, laboratory blood tests, imaging features, and surgical management were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to screen for factors to predict BL. The cutoff values for those factors and predictive value of a model were determined by receiver operative characteristic curve (ROC) analysis. BL was detected in 22 of the 152 patients. Univariate analyses showed significant differences in the lesion diameter, levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), alkaline phosphatase, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase and direct bilirubin (DBIL), inferior vena cava invasion, surface area of hepatectomy, blood loss and history of percutaneous transhepatic cholangial drainage between patients with and without BL. On multivariate analyses, DBIL > 7.1 mu mol/L, LDH > 194U/L, lesion diameter > 12 cm and a larger surface area of hepatectomy were independent predictors of BL. The resulting area under the ROC of the scoring model was 0.724 (95% CI, 0.646-0.793). The lesion diameter, DBIL, larger surface area of hepatectomy, and elevated LDH were the important factors affecting the occurrence of BL after surgery. The risk score model will help the clinician to assess BL before surgery. More studies are needed to confirm the scoring model and risk factors.