Land system evolution of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under various development strategies

Land use and land cover (LULC) is one of the most representative criteria used to evaluate the global environment and terrestrial ecosystem change. LULC plays an important role in the ecological and environmental protection of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which is a unique geographical location. The LULC of the QTP has undergone drastic changes during the past few decades due to local planning and policy implementation. Projects such as reforestation and grassland restoration are exerting pressure on land resources and may affect future land use patterns considerably. Current assessments of future land use changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for commodities and services. This study employed the CLUMondo model to predict future land use change trajectories for the period 2010-2030 under three different scenarios. The results indicate that land system changes varied notably under different land management strategies and exhibited large locational discrepancies. Moreover, future land system changes are mainly demonstrated in the form of management intensification under all three scenarios. High demand for livestock in the TREND scenario leads to grassland expansion as well, resulting in corresponding increase in the grassland cover density. Additionally, the expansion of forest area under the FOREST scenario suggests that caution should be exercised during afforestation in the QTP. The results of this study can guide and support future land-use planning, management, and policy formulation in the QTP.