Cross-Validated Prediction of Academic Performance of First-Year University Students: Identifying Risk Factors in a Nonselective Environment

Early prediction of academic performance is important for student support. The authors explored, in a multivariate approach, whether pre-entry data (e.g., high school study results, preparative activities, expectations, capabilities, motivation, and attitude) could predict university students' first-year academic performance. Preregistered applicants for a bachelor's program filled out an intake questionnaire before study entry. Outcome data (first-year grade point average, course credits, and attrition) were obtained 1 year later. Prediction accuracy was assessed by cross-validation. Students who performed better in preparatory education, followed a conventional educational path before entering, and expected to spend more time on a program-related organization performed better during their first year at university. Concrete preuniversity behaviors were more predictive than psychological attributions such as self-efficacy. Students with a love of learning performed better than leisure-oriented students. The intake questionnaire may be used for identifying up front who may need additional support, but is not suitable for student selection.