Lifetimes and Occurrence Rates of Dark Vortices on Neptune from 25 Years of Hubble Space Telescope Images

We scoured the full set of blue-wavelength Hubble Space Telescope images of Neptune, finding one additional dark spot in new Hubble data beyond those discovered in 1989, 1994, 1996, and 2015. We report the complete disappearance of the SDS-2015 dark spot, using new Hubble data taken on 2018 September 9-10, as part of the Outer Planet Atmospheres Legacy (OPAL) program. Overall, dark spots in the full Hubble data set have lifetimes of at least one to two years, and no more than six years. We modeled a set of dark spots randomly distributed in time over the latitude range on Neptune that is visible from Earth, finding that the cadence of archival Hubble images would have detected about 70% of these spots if their lifetimes are only one year, or about 85%-95% of simulated spots with lifetimes of two or more years. Based on the Hubble data set, we conclude that dark spots have average occurrence rates of one dark spot every four to six years. Many numerical models to date have simulated much shorter vortex lifetimes, so our findings provide constraints that may lead to improved understanding of Neptune's wind field, stratification, and humidity.