期刊
ECOLOGY LETTERS
卷 18, 期 3, 页码 246-253出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ele.12401
关键词
Biological invasion; niche conservatism; niche expansion; niche shift; species distribution models
类别
资金
- French Foundation for Biodiversity Research (FRB)
- EU FP7 COCONET
- Israeli Ministry of Agriculture [891-0256-11]
- Marie Curie Integration Grant [614352]
Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species-climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo-Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change.
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