A Rail-Temperature-Prediction Model Considering Meteorological Conditions and the Position of the Sun

In railway-safety management, the rail temperature, which directly affects the buckling of a rail, is very important. Train companies have been measuring rail temperature directly to prevent buckling and to limit speeds on trains. However, since it is difficult to directly measure the temperature distribution over an entire rail, various models for predicting this temperature using climate information have been developed. In this study, we propose a novel rail-temperature-prediction model based on the energy-equilibrium equation with consideration of the position of the sun. When compared with previous models, the newly proposed model shows higher performance in terms of root-mean-square error and R-squared value. It is expected to be very helpful for train-safety management.