期刊
LAND ECONOMICS
卷 95, 期 2, 页码 279-291出版社
UNIV WISCONSIN PRESS
DOI: 10.3368/le.95.2.279
关键词
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资金
- USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture [2011-68002-30185]
- U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station
- NASA Synthesis project [NNX17AI09G]
We extend real options analysis of timberland investments to examine a combination of financial and biophysical risk effects on optimal investment strategies in the southeastern United States. Results show that, despite a slight downward drift in price, expected returns for loblolly pine management fall between entry and exit thresholds, indicating an optimal hold strategy. This is explained by an offsetting upward trend in biophysical productivity associated with climate changes across a range of modeled futures. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a small positive difference between entry and exit outcomes consistent with observed rates of expansion in timberland investments in the region. (JEL D81, Q23)
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