期刊
MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN
卷 119, 期 1, 页码 102-109出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2017.03.037
关键词
Barents Sea; Oil spill; Northeast Arctic cod; Eggs; Larvae; Natural mortality
资金
- Research Council of Norway (RCN) [196685]
- RCN PETROMAKS program - SYMBIOSES (BIP project) [ES468602]
- RCN
- BP Exploration Operating Company Limited
- ConocoPhillips Scandinavia
- ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company
- Eni Norge
- Shell Technology Norway
- Statoil Petroleum
- Total EP Norway
- VISTA, a basic research program - Statoil
- RCN project OILCOM [255487/E40]
- Nordforsk through the project: Green Growth Based on Marine Resources: Ecological and Socio-Economic Constraints (GreenMAR)
The effects of oil spills on marine biological systems are of great concern, especially in regions with high biological production of harvested resources such as in the Northeastern Atlantic. The scientific studies of the impact of oil spills on fish stocks tend to ignore that spatial patterns of natural mortality may influence the magnitude of the impact over time. Here, we first illustrate how spatial variation in natural mortality may affect the population impact by considering a thought experiment. Second, we consider an empirically based example of Northeast Arctic cod to extend the concept to a realistic setting. Finally, we present a scenario-based investigation of how the degree of spatial variation in natural mortality affects the impact over a gradient of oil spill sizes. Including the effects of spatial variations in natural mortality tends to widen the impact distribution, hence increasing the probability of both high and low impact events. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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