期刊
OCEAN SCIENCE
卷 15, 期 2, 页码 401-412出版社
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/os-15-401-2019
关键词
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资金
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2017YFC1404103]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41811530301, 41621064]
- National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction [GASI-IPOVAI-04]
- Program of Shanghai Academic/Technology Research Leader [17XD1400600]
- China Postdoctoral Science Foundation [2016M601493]
A novel predictive model was built for eddy propagation trajectory using the multiple linear regression method. This simple model relates various oceanic parameters to eddy propagation position changes in the northern South China Sea (NSCS). These oceanic parameters mainly represent the effects of beta and mean flow advection on the eddy propagation. The performance of the proposed model has been examined in the NSCS based on five years of satellite altimeter data and demonstrates its significant forecasting skills over a 4-week forecast window compared to the traditional persistence method. It was also found that the model forecasting accuracy is sensitive to eddy polarity and the forecast season.
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