期刊
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
卷 119, 期 -, 页码 209-216出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.08.015
关键词
China; Carbon intensity; Economic growth; Energy structure adjustment; Contribution evaluation
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71473180, 71201010, 71303174]
- Natural Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Talents of Guangdong [2014A030306031]
- Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong [S2011010001591]
- Department of Education of Guangdong [[2013]246, [2014]145]
In 2009, the Chinese government announced its carbon intensity target for 2020. Can China achieve this carbon intensity while sustaining economic growth? To address this essential issue, the contributions of this study lie in three aspects. First, we quantitatively capture the relationship between China's economic growth and energy consumption using the cointegration theory, and predict China's energy consumption by 2020 according to different economic growth targets. Second, we forecast China's energy structure in 2020 using compositional data and ARIMA models under different scenarios. Third, we deduce China's CO2 emission and carbon intensity in 2020. Furthermore, we investigate whether (or not) China can realize the carbon intensity target in premise of ensuring economic growth, and evaluate the contribution of the energy structure's adjustment to meeting this target. Finally, we put forward some relevant policy implications for achieving China's carbon intensity target. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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