期刊
ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
卷 109, 期 -, 页码 161-174出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.11.005
关键词
Agricultural ecosystem services; Integrated modeling; Policy impact analysis; Regional climate change; Macro-economic indicators; Biodiversity and landscape metrics
资金
- project CAFEE (Climate Change in agriculture and forestry: an integrated assessment of mitigation and adaptation measures in Austria) - Austrian Climate and Energy Fund within ACRP [K10AC1K00086]
- project CC2BBE (Vulnerability of a bio-based economy to global climate change impacts) - Austrian Climate and Energy Fund within ACRP [KR12AC5K01355]
We have developed an integrated modeling framework (IMF) to quantify indicators for ecosystem services (ES) and economic development (ED) in agricultural landscapes. Austria serves as a case study in which impacts, trade-offs, and synergies of ES and ED are assessed for different agricultural policy pathways and regional climate change scenarios. Agricultural intensification and incentivized use of provisioning ES (e.g. biomass production) lead to higher macro-economic output (e.g. GDP) but usually reduce ES related to regulation and maintenance (e.g. ecological integrity, climate regulation), as well as cultural services (landscape diversity). We revealed both synergies for certain ES (e.g. biomass production and soil organic carbon stocks) as well as large spatial deviations from the national mean across the heterogeneous agricultural landscapes in Austria. Climate change scenarios (i) lead to substantial variation in ES and ED indicators and (ii) usually amplify trade-offs by stimulating land use intensification. Our findings depict the complex relationship between different ES and ED indicators as well as the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity and regional climate change. This assessment can help to improve targeting of agri-environmental schemes in order to provide a more balanced and efficient supply of ES and to foster rural development. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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