Complex Adaptive Systems Framework to Simulate the Performance of Hydrant Flushing Rules and Broadcasts during a Water Distribution System Contamination Event

In the event that a contaminant is introduced to a water distribution system, utility managers must respond quickly to protect public health. Mitigation strategies specify response actions, such as warning consumers to reduce water activities using the news media and flushing contaminated water at hydrants. The performance of alternative response actions may be influenced by sociotechnical dynamics, as consumer reactions to contaminant exposure and information about the event can change water demands, hydraulics, propagation of a contaminant plume, and public health consequences. This research develops a modeling framework to test and evaluate mitigation decisions that a utility manager may take to protect public health over a wide range of contamination events. An agent-based modeling framework is developed to integrate social behaviors with technical artifacts in a sociotechnical model to evaluate the public health consequences of a water event. Social actors, including consumers and utility managers, are represented as agents and are coupled with a water distribution network model and a news media model to evaluate the performance of response strategies. Strategies for flushing hydrants are encoded as decision trees that specify the location and timing of hydrant flushing, based on the activation of water-quality sensors. The agent-based model is described using the Overview, Design, and Details protocol and is demonstrated for a virtual midsized municipality, Mesopolis. Results compare the effectiveness of flushing hydrants using cautious and adaptive response strategies and the use of the news media to disseminate warning messages. The framework can be applied for cities to evaluate alternative management strategies. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.