Exploring shipping accident contributory factors using association rules

The investigation of contributory factors in ship traffic accidents is a high-priority issue in maritime safety analysis. In this study, a method based on association rules is proposed to analyze these contributory factors. Using ten years of ship traffic accidents that occurred in Fujian water areas, a total of 66 and 228 association rules is generated for nonserious and serious accidents, respectively. Univariate analysis results show that both severity levels of accidents are probably associated with small ships, good visibility, no strong wind/wave, and the season of spring. The frequency of nonserious accidents is about 33% higher than that of serious accidents in coastal/harbor/port areas. However, the association analysis results show that serious accidents are associated with more influencing factors than are nonserious accidents. Lookout failure is an additional decisive factor in serious accidents but not in nonserious accidents. The association analysis results also reveal that many influencing factors (e.g., navigational status) exhibit effects only under some specific circumstances.