期刊
JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY
卷 428, 期 -, 页码 65-75出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.05.034
关键词
Ebola virus disease; Transmission modeling; Spatial modeling; Interventions; Gravity model
资金
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health, as part of the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Network [U01GM110712]
The 2014-2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa was the largest ever recorded, representing a fundamental shift in Ebola epidemiology with unprecedented spatiotemporal complexity. To understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of EVD in West Africa, we developed spatial transmission models using a gravity-model framework at both the national and district-level scales, which we used to compare effectiveness of local interventions (e.g. local quarantine) and long-range interventions (e.g. border closures). The country-level gravity model captures the epidemic data, including multiple waves of initial epidemic growth observed in Guinea. We found that local-transmission reductions were most effective in Liberia, while long-range transmission was dominant in Sierra Leone. Both models illustrated that interventions in one region result in an amplified protective effect on other regions by preventing spatial transmission. In the district-level model, interventions in the strongest of these amplifying regions reduced total cases in all three countries by over 20%, in spite of the region itself generating only similar to 0.1% of total cases. This model structure and associated intervention analysis provide information that can be used by public health policymakers to assist planning and response efforts for future epidemics. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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