Settling in or moving out? Exploring the effect of mobility intentions on public housing exits

This paper seeks to understand how public housing residents' mobility intentions affect their actual exits. The results suggest that mobility intentions do have a significant effect on public housing exits. However, the rate of exit among those who intend to move out of public housing was similar to those who did not intend to leave. In addition, tenure had a significant effect on the odds of exiting alluding to issues of duration dependence. However, neighbourhood conditions did not fully explain public housing exits. Our proxy for policy reform had a large effect on the odds of exiting of public housing. This result suggests that changes in housing assistance programmes and urban housing policy could largely account for public housing exits. Overall, the results imply that while public housing residents may have positive and negative mobility intentions, their exits may primarily be due to shifts in housing policy and social welfare programmes versus individual characteristics and neighbourhood conditions.