Land use and land cover dynamics and drivers in the Muga watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia

Land use/land cover change causes unprecedented changes on the surrounding environment at different spatial and temporal scales. Muga watershed of Upper Blue Nile basin is characterized by deterioration with mismanagement of natural resources. Thus, this study was aimed at detecting the magnitude and pattern of land use/land cover changes and assessing drivers of changes over the last three decades (1985-2017) in the Muga watershed. Synergy of Landsat imageries (1985, 2002, and 2017), household survey, focus group discussion, key informant interview, and field observation were used to detect changes and drivers of changes. Land use/land cover changes in the study watershed were detected using digital image analysis techniques, and their socioeconomic and biophysical drivers were analysed using descriptive statistics. The change detection results revealed a significant increasing trend of cultivated land and urban areas by 12 and 270%, respectively. In contrast, grasslands, forest lands and shrub-bushlands showed a declining trend of about 40, 21 and 12%, respectively. The socioeconomic data analysis results indicated that expansion of cultivated land, cutting of trees for fuelwood and construction purposes, population growth, land tenure policy, and climate variability were the most influential drivers of land use/land cover changes in the study watershed. The findings of this study confirmed that unmanaged land cover conversion led to degradation of natural resources of the study watershed. Thus, alternative sources of income for youths and landless peasants, and integrated watershed management, which has paramount importance in maintaining economic and ecological benefits were suggested to alleviate the adverse effects of land use/land cover changes in Muga watershed.