期刊
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
卷 129, 期 -, 页码 136-147出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2019.05.019
关键词
Safety-in-numbers; Meta-analysis; Meta-regression; Cyclists; Pedestrians
类别
资金
- METAHIT, an MRC Methodology Panel project [MR/P02663X/1]
- TIGTHAT, an MRC Global Challenges Project [MR/P024408/1]
- MRC [MR/P02663X/1, MR/P024408/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Safety-in-numbers denotes the tendency for the number of accidents to increase less than in proportion to traffic volume. This paper updates a meta-analysis of estimates of safety-in-numbers published in 2017 (Elvik and Bjornskau, Safety Science, 92, 274-282). Nearly all studies find safety-in-numbers, but the numerical estimates vary considerably. As virtually all studies are cross-sectional, it is not possible to determine if safety-in-numbers represents a causal relationship. Meta-regression analysis was performed to identify factors which may explain the large heterogeneity of estimates of safety-in-numbers. It was found that safety-in-numbers tends to be stronger for pedestrians than for cyclists, and stronger at the macro-level (e.g. citywide) than at the micro-level (e.g. in junctions). Recent studies find a stronger tendency towards safety-in-numbers than older studies.
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