期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 147, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268819001262
关键词
Epidemiology; peste-des-petits-ruminants; seroepidemiologic studies; Tanzania; animal husbandry
资金
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation grant 'Programme For Enhancing the Health and Productivity of Livestock (PEHPL)' [OPP1083453]
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
- Department for International Development
- Economic & Social Research Council
- Medical Research Council
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Defense Science & Technology Laboratory, under the Zoonoses and Emerging Livestock Systems (ZELS) programme [BB/L018926/1]
- BBSRC [BB/M018628/1, BB/R004250/1, BB/R019843/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in small ruminant populations globally. Using cross-sectional serosurvey data collected in 2016, our study investigated PPRV seroprevalence and risk factors among sheep, goats and cattle in 20 agropastoral (AP) and pastoral (P) villages in northern Tanzania. Overall observed seroprevalence was 21.1% (95% exact confidence interval (CI) 20.1-22.0) with 5.8% seroprevalence among agropastoral (95% CI 5.0-6.7) and 30.7% among pastoral villages (95% CI 29.3-32.0). Seropositivity varied significantly by management (production) system. Our study applied the catalytic framework to estimate the force of infection. The associated reproductive numbers (R-0) were estimated at 1.36 (95% CI 1.32-1.39), 1.40 (95% CI 1.37-1.44) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.14) for sheep, goats and cattle, respectively. For sheep and goats, these R-0 values are likely underestimates due to infection-associated mortality. Spatial heterogeneity in risk among pairs of species across 20 villages was significantly positively correlated (R2: 0.59-0.69), suggesting either cross-species transmission or common, external risk factors affecting all species. The non-negligible seroconversion in cattle may represent spillover or cattle-to-cattle transmission and must be investigated further to understand the role of cattle in PPRV transmission ahead of upcoming eradication efforts.
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