期刊
ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-URBAN ANALYTICS AND CITY SCIENCE
卷 46, 期 7, 页码 1264-1280出版社
SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
DOI: 10.1177/2399808319864972
关键词
Polycentric development; property market; land use-transportation interaction models; online data
资金
- C. Lowell Harriss Dissertation Fellowship (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy)
- Grace & Thomas C H Chan Cambridge International Scholarship
- Capco Future Cities Fellowship
- Cambridge-UC Berkeley-National University of Singapore University Alliance project 'Smart Design'
- EPSRC [EP/K000314/1, EP/L010917/1, EP/N021614/1, EP/I019308/1] Funding Source: UKRI
The polycentric idea has recently been reinvigorated in many rapidly urbanising countries, but the paucity of reliable and disaggregated data has so far made it almost impossible to understand the policy feedback there. This paper capitalises on official statistical data, novel online data, and proprietary digital data, and builds a dynamic spatial equilibrium model for understanding the past lessons and future options for developing new urban sub-centres. Following the post-2010 situation of a negative sign of monocentric bid-rent curve and physical polycentric growth, we assemble, corroborate, and validate multi-source data sets within the model to explore possible polycentric development scenarios (2010-2035). The data analysis and model tests show that over time, the balance between jobs and housing provision appears to have been lost, and it is insufficient job opportunities in the planned sub-centres rather than any lack of housing development that has led to the loss of this balance. Localised circumstances have also played a role in this overarching pattern of evolution. The insights are cogent for current decision making regarding polycentric planning and growth, especially in developing countries.
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