期刊
JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL COMPUTATION AND SIMULATION
卷 87, 期 13, 页码 2622-2638出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/00949655.2017.1335313
关键词
Adaptive kernel density estimation; convergence diagnostics; Kullback Leibler divergence; MCMC; Monte Carlo
In the existing literature of MCMC diagnostics, we have identified two areas for improvement. Firstly, the density-based diagnostic tools currently available in the literature are not equipped to assess the joint convergence of multiple variables. Secondly, in case of multi-modal target distribution if the MCMC sampler gets stuck in one of the modes, then the current diagnostic tools may falsely detect convergence. The Tool 1 proposed in this article makes use of adaptive kernel density estimation, symmetric Kullback Leibler divergence and a testing of hypothesis framework to assess the joint convergence of multiple variables. In cases where Tool 1 detects divergence of multiple chains, started at distinct initial values, we propose a visualization tool that can help to investigate reasons behind their divergence. The Tool 2 proposed in this article makes a novel use of the target distribution (known up till the unknown normalizing constant), to detect divergence when an MCMC sampler gets stuck in one of the modes of a multi-modal target distribution. The usefulness of the tools proposed in this article is illustrated using a multi-modal distribution, a mixture of bivariate normal distribution and a Bayesian logit model example.
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