HEP quantification strategy based on modified CREAM

The accurate quantification of human error probability (HEP) has long been a main pursuit for most human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper proposes a strategy to analyze and predict human error on the basis of a further modification of the existing cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) in HRA. Through providing a broader definition for the key parameters used in the quantification method, this paper produces a relatively flexible strategy to determine the nominal HEP (HEP0). Basing on this strategy, the actual quantification of HEP in CREAM is able to be applied to more verified conditions. To prove the validity of the method proposed, a case study of spacecraft launch is also introduced, in which the prediction derived from the method is proved consistent with real field