A Novel Approach to Fuzzy Cognitive Map Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Sets for Modeling Risk Impact on Electric Power System

Electric power industry has been undergoing enormous transformations. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the security of electric power system and the decision capacity in the emergency process. As a complicated system, electric power system is affected by many factors, the reasoning of which can be regarded as a process that combines intuition and cognition. Uncertainty characterizes human cognitive and reasoning processes. Several extensions of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) model have been suggested to handle multifarious sources of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the uncertainty from human doubt may arise in the assignment of membership degrees, which is neglected in current FCMs. To deal with this problem, a novel approach based on hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs) and FCMs, called hesitant fuzzy cognitive maps (HFCMs), is presented in this paper. The proposed method, which possesses the features of tackling hesitancy explicitly during the experts' assessments, is demonstrated by an example on the analysis of risk factors affecting electric power system. It can provide a better simulation of the inherent uncertainty in real problems through the hesitancy represented in experts' knowledge, and a what-if analysis for describing hesitant fuzzy scenario is well developed with the HFCM model. (c) 2019 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.