期刊
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SYSTEMS
卷 12, 期 2, 页码 842-854出版社
ATLANTIS PRESS
DOI: 10.2991/ijcis.d.190722.001
关键词
Fuzzy cognitive map; Hesitant fuzzy set; Risk factors; Electric power system; Simulation
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71601002, 71704001]
- Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China [16YJC630077, 18YJC630249]
- Foundation for Young Talents in College of Anhui Province [gxyqZD2018033]
- major project of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education of China [16JJD840008]
- National Social Science Foundation of China [18BJY225]
- Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation [1708085MG168]
Electric power industry has been undergoing enormous transformations. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the security of electric power system and the decision capacity in the emergency process. As a complicated system, electric power system is affected by many factors, the reasoning of which can be regarded as a process that combines intuition and cognition. Uncertainty characterizes human cognitive and reasoning processes. Several extensions of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) model have been suggested to handle multifarious sources of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the uncertainty from human doubt may arise in the assignment of membership degrees, which is neglected in current FCMs. To deal with this problem, a novel approach based on hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs) and FCMs, called hesitant fuzzy cognitive maps (HFCMs), is presented in this paper. The proposed method, which possesses the features of tackling hesitancy explicitly during the experts' assessments, is demonstrated by an example on the analysis of risk factors affecting electric power system. It can provide a better simulation of the inherent uncertainty in real problems through the hesitancy represented in experts' knowledge, and a what-if analysis for describing hesitant fuzzy scenario is well developed with the HFCM model. (c) 2019 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press SARL.
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