期刊
JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
卷 127, 期 5, 页码 2505-2558出版社
UNIV CHICAGO PRESS
DOI: 10.1086/701809
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资金
- Laura and John Arnold Foundation
- Berkeley Institute for Research on Labor and Employment
- National Tax Association [TIRNO-12-P-00374]
This paper uses US local areas as a laboratory to test for long-term impacts of the Great Recession. In administrative longitudinal data, I estimate that exposure to a 1 percentage point larger 2007-9 local unemployment shock reduced 2015 working-age employment rates by over 0.3 percentage points. Rescaled, this long-term recession impact accounts for over half of the 2007-15 US age-adjusted employment decline. Impacts were larger among older and lower-earning individuals and typically involved a layoff but are present even in a mass-layoffs sample. Disability insurance and out-migration yielded little income replacement. These findings reveal that the Great Recession imposed employment and income losses even after unemployment rates signaled recovery.
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