期刊
JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE
卷 108, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.105652
关键词
International stock markets; Interconnectedness; Integration; Transmission; Spillovers
This paper proposes a new measure of contagion as the coincidence of large left-tail events in the idiosyncratic disturbances of international stock returns after controlling for their exposure to a global factor. Episodes of bad contagion, especially those involving a large number of countries, are followed by a significant drop in international stock returns. This predictability pattern can be understood as an international transmission effect, as bad contagion only affects countries that did not experience tail events. In addition, the negative effect of bad contagion spills over to real growth, sovereign default risk, and financial stability indicators. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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