Prediction of Flexible Pavement Deterioration in Relation to Climate Change Using Fuzzy Logic

An understanding of the impacts of climate change on infrastructure is important in the context of reducing future socioeconomic losses. Previous research has introduced models based on empirical and mechanical analyses to predict the behavior of infrastructure considering climate change. However, the uncertainty and unavailability of information regarding climate change prevent the widespread use of these previous models. This paper presents a method for developing a climate impact-assessment system using fuzzy inferences to predict the alteration of infrastructure service life. Fuzzy inferences enable an understanding of the impacts of climate on infrastructure, with expert knowledge reflecting the interactions between multiple environmental factors. Based on the proposed method, the impacts of climate change on infrastructure can be analyzed by obtaining an expected service life with respect to various climate scenarios. A case study was conducted on a flexible pavement road in Alabama to show the applicability and utility of the method. The proposed method is expected to improve infrastructure management and planning practices, establishing proactive adaptation strategies to minimize additional infrastructure expenditure and damage. (c) 2017 American Society of Civil Engineers.