期刊
JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES
卷 216, 期 9, 页码 1141-1149出版社
OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC
DOI: 10.1093/inFdis/jix450
关键词
antibiotic resistance; gonorrhea; mathematical model; point-of-care test
资金
- US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling [5U38PS004642]
- Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation - Grand Challenges Explorations Initiative [OPP1151010] Funding Source: researchfish
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1151010] Funding Source: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Background. Increasing antibiotic resistance limits treatment options for gonorrhea. We examined the impact of a hypothetical point-of-care (POC) test reporting antibiotic susceptibility profiles on slowing resistance spread. Methods. A mathematical model describing gonorrhea transmission incorporated resistance emergence probabilities and fitness costs associated with resistance based on characteristics of ciprofloxacin (A), azithromycin (B), and ceftriaxone (C). We evaluated time to 1% and 5% prevalence of resistant strains among all isolates with the following: (1) empiric treatment (B and C), and treatment guided by POC tests determining susceptibility to (2) A only and (3) all 3 antibiotics. Results. Continued empiric treatment without POC testing was projected to result in >5% of isolates being resistant to both B and C within 15 years. Use of either POC test in 10% of identified cases delayed this by 5 years. The 3 antibiotic POC test delayed the time to reach 1% prevalence of triply-resistant strains by 6 years, whereas the A-only lest resulted in no delay. Results were less sensitive to assumptions about fitness costs and test characteristics with increasing test uptake. Conclusions. Rapid diagnostics reporting antibiotic susceptibility may extend the usefulness of existing antibiotics for gonorrhea treatment, but ongoing monitoring of resistance patterns will be critical.
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