Does ride-hailing increase or decrease vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT)? A simulation approach for Santiago de Chile

Many authors have pointed out the importance of determining the impact of ride-hailing (ridesourcing) on vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), and thus on transport externalities like congestion. However, to date there is scant evidence on this subject. In this paper we use survey results on Uber use by residents of Santiago, Chile, and information from other studies to parameterize a model to determine whether the advent of ride-hailing applications increases or decreases the number of VKT. Given the intrinsic uncertainty on the value of some model parameters, we use a Monte Carlo simulation for a range of possible parameter values. Our results indicate that unless ride-hailing applications substantially increase average occupancy rate of trips and become shared or pooled ride-hailing, the impact is an increase in VKT. We discuss these results in light of current empirical research in this area.